The Republican Surge:
Durbin Out, Tracy In: Illinois Senate Race Becomes GOP’s Biggest Opening in a Generation
With a Democratic titan retiring and Pritzker’s star fading, Republicans see their best shot in decades — but Tracy must survive a divided base, fierce rivals, and the Trump loyalty test to flip Illinois red.
By Mike Monseur — August 16, 2025
A Race Decades in the Making
SPRINGFIELD, Ill. — Illinois Republicans haven’t had a moment like this in decades.
With Senator Dick Durbin retiring after nearly 30 years and Governor JB Pritzker’s approval ratings sliding amid economic discontent, the 2026 Senate race could be the GOP’s most competitive chance since the 1990s.
The last time Republicans broke through was in 1998, when Peter Fitzgerald stunned Carol Moseley Braun, capitalizing on voter frustration and corruption scandals.
Before that, Illinois hadn’t seen an open Senate seat since 2004, when Barack Obama launched his meteoric rise.
That history makes this race feel not only high-stakes, but potentially transformative.
This week, Don Tracy — Springfield attorney, businessman, and past Illinois Republican Party chairman — became the first major GOP contender to say he's stepping into the ring.
His announcement, delivered to a packed room of party loyalists, comes at a moment when voter frustration with entrenched politics is boiling over.
“Fighting for the Illinois Working Family”
Tracy’s family founded DOT Foods, now the largest food redistributor in the United States.
He’s chaired the Illinois Gaming Board, built a career in law and business, and led the Illinois Republican Party through challenging election cycles.
At his launch, Tracy pledged to fight for every corner of the state:
“Illinois families are burdened by high taxes, crushing regulation, and a stagnant economy. I’m running to represent all 102 counties — not just the ones the political insiders care about.”
The Trump Tightrope
Tracy’s past reluctance to fully support President Donald Trump remains a sticking point for many in the GOP base.
In Illinois politics, Trump’s influence is still potent, and any perceived lack of loyalty can be costly in a Republican primary.
One grassroots activist didn’t hold back, posting online:
“I wonder if Don will be supported by the grassroots the way he supported the grassroots candidates in 2022? (Insert sarcasm) Time will tell, I suppose!!”
That remark sparked a flurry of citizen responses:
“We don’t need another politician who talks unity but won’t stand up for our people when it matters.”
“If he’s going to lead this party, he better remember who actually shows up to knock doors and vote.”
“I’ll listen, but he’s got some proving to do before I’m on board.”
The divide mirrors a larger identity battle inside the Illinois GOP— between rural conservatives who want Bailey-style populism and suburban Republicans who believe a pragmatic candidate like Tracy can peel off independents in the general.
Rivals Circle in a Crowded Field
The Republican primary field is beginning to take shape — but not everyone has formally declared.
While Pamela Denise Long has officially entered the race, much of the conversation still centers on who else might jump in.
Pamela Denise Long — Already announced, Long has made a name as a sharp critic of President Trump. While she appeals to some independents, many in the GOP base bristle at her positions, with detractors branding her a “plant” or “RINO” sent to fracture the vote.
Casey Chlebek — Expected to run, touting strong ties to immigrant communities and an economic growth agenda.
Doug Bennett — A former congressional nominee with grassroots credibility who has not yet declared but is widely encouraged to enter.
Cary Capparelli — Floated as a possible candidate, with international business and policy experience.
Kathy Salvi — The 2022 Senate nominee, still recognized but struggling to recapture momentum; her re-entry remains speculative.
Darren Bailey — The rural conservative favorite and former gubernatorial nominee has not yet announced, but insiders are pushing him to mount another statewide run.
The chatter underscores how fragile Republican unity remains.
If the field splinters between establishment contenders and hardline populists, Democrats could coast to victory despite Pritzker’s declining numbers.
Mixed Reviews on Tracy’s Record
Tracy’s tenure as GOP chair is a double-edged sword.
Supporters say his experience equips him to compete statewide in a hostile political environment.
Critics say the party’s lack of electoral success during his leadership raises doubts about his ability to deliver victories.
One longtime precinct committeeman summed it up:
“We need a fighter, not a manager. Don’s a good man, but this race is going to take someone who can swing hard when the other side plays dirty.”
Democrats Prepare for a Fight
Democrats are wasting no time. Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton has Pritzker’s backing.
Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi leads in early fundraising, while former party chair Robin Kelly sits on a $2 million war chest.
But Democrats face their own internal fractures:
Stratton could consolidate Chicago’s Black vote but risks being tied too closely to Pritzker’s sinking fortunes.
Krishnamoorthi appeals to suburban professionals but faces skepticism from progressives who see him as too corporate.
Kelly has the resources but lacks name recognition beyond party insiders.
Early ratings still call the general election “Safe Democratic,” but history warns against complacency:
Illinois Democrats once considered Carol Moseley Braun unbeatable — until she wasn’t.
The Road to November 2026
Illinois voters are restless.
The cost of living, crime concerns, and political fatigue are dominating conversations from Chicago’s South Side to the farm towns of southern Illinois.
Illinois lost over 100,000 residents in the past three years, many fleeing for states like Florida and Texas.
Crime remains a top concern, particularly after controversial criminal justice reforms pushed by Democrats.
And property taxes — among the highest in the nation — weigh heavily on families and retirees alike.
For Republicans, this race is a test of whether they can unite behind a nominee who can win not just the base but the persuadable middle.
For Democrats, it’s a test of whether their urban machine can still carry the state without the enthusiasm Durbin once generated.
Pulse of the Voters
In coffee shops, church basements, and online forums, Illinois Republicans are already debating Tracy’s run:
“I’ll vote for the one who isn’t afraid to call out the Democrats AND clean house in our own party.” — Small business owner, Effingham County
“If Tracy wants my vote, he needs to stop talking like a lawyer and start talking like someone who understands what it costs to raise a family here.” — Mother of three, Will County
“We’ve had enough photo ops. Show us results, and we’ll show you support.” — Retired factory worker, Peoria County
“Trump is the standard. If you can’t say that proudly, you’re not my candidate.” — Farmer, Clinton County
“The Democrats are beatable, but only if we stop beating each other up first.” — Precinct captain, McHenry County
A Closing Thought
This race is about more than one candidate.
It’s about whether Illinois Republicans can overcome internal divisions, rally around a common vision, and finally put the state back in play.
If they can’t do it now — with an open seat, a divided Democratic Party, and a restless electorate — they may not get another real shot for a generation.
Sources:
FactsFirstUS.com research team
Illinois State Board of Elections– Candidate Filings, 2025
Ballotpedia – United States Senate election in Illinois, 2026
Capitol News Illinois –Fundraising Reports for 2026 Illinois Senate Candidates
Public statements from Illinois GOP grassroots forums and social media posts (2025)
Illinois Republican Party Leadership Records
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