FORTY-TWO MILLION DOLLARS LATER, THE ILLINOIS GOP IS STILL LOOKING FOR THE KEYS

Pritzker has the money. Democrats have Springfield. Republicans have millions of voters. And somehow, the one thing nobody can seem to find is a winning machine.

By Staff Writer | August 18, 2026

Forty-two million dollars.

Start there.

Not with another Republican speech about taking Illinois back. Not with another fundraising email warning that Springfield has gone too far left. Not with another promise that frustrated taxpayers are finally ready to revolt.

Start with the money.

More than $42 million flowed into People Who Play By The Rules, the independent expenditure committee financed almost entirely by conservative billionaire Richard Uihlein.

The organization is now finished.

Its final campaign finance report has been filed with the Illinois State Board of Elections.

The books are closing.

The political scoreboard is considerably harder to close.

According to Illinois Review's examination of campaign finance records, the PAC supported four candidates during its four-year existence.

All four lost.

Republican gubernatorial nominee Darren Bailey lost in 2022.

Three school board candidates supported by the organization lost in 2023.

Zero wins.

Four losses.

More than $42 million came in.

And according to Illinois Review, more than $1.1 million went to Starfish Consulting LLC, a company controlled by the PAC's chairman and treasurer, longtime Illinois political operative Dan Proft.

"The PAC's record offers a costly lesson in what happens when enormous political resources produce little measurable return."

Illinois Review, August 18, 2026.

That may be the understatement of the Illinois political decade.

Because this is not really a story about one PAC.

It is not even primarily a story about Dan Proft, Richard Uihlein or Darren Bailey.

It is a story about something much bigger.

It is the story of an Illinois Republican movement that has repeatedly demonstrated an ability to raise money, generate anger, attract passionate voters and identify Democratic vulnerabilities, yet has failed to convert those assets into durable statewide political power.

They had the money.

They had the donors.

They had the issues.

They had the anger.

They had millions of voters.

What they did not build was a machine capable of consistently turning those things into victories.

And that is where the Illinois Republican Party finds itself in the summer of 2026.

Not dead.

Not irrelevant.

But frighteningly close to becoming comfortable with losing.

That distinction matters.

Because losing an election is politics.

Learning how to lose is dangerous.

And Illinois Republicans have had plenty of practice.

In 2022, Gov. JB Pritzker defeated Bailey 54.91 percent to 42.37 percent.

That was not a squeaker.

It was not a recount election.

It was not an election decided by a handful of precincts in Cook County.

Pritzker won by more than 514,000 votes.

Roughly 12.5 percentage points separated the two candidates.

Millions of dollars in conservative outside spending could not change the outcome.

Four years later, Republicans have decided to try Bailey versus Pritzker again.

Bailey won the 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary decisively, taking 304,162 votes, or 53.28 percent. Ted Dabrowski finished second with 165,229 votes, or 28.94 percent.

Bailey earned the nomination.

That is not in dispute.

But Bailey's primary victory proved something Republicans already knew.

He can win Republicans.

His 2022 defeat proved something far more important.

Winning Republicans is nowhere near enough to win Illinois.

And therein lies the trap that has swallowed the Illinois GOP.

A political party can become extremely good at talking to the people who already agree with it while becoming increasingly bad at persuading everybody else.

It can fill banquet halls.

It can dominate conservative Facebook pages.

It can produce viral videos.

It can generate outrage.

It can hold rallies where nearly everyone in attendance agrees that Illinois is heading in the wrong direction.

And then Election Day arrives.

That is when the conversation leaves the room.

In 2024, Donald Trump won the presidency nationally.

In Illinois, Kamala Harris beat him 54.37 percent to 43.47 percent.

Trump still received 2,449,079 votes in Illinois.

Read that number carefully.

Nearly two and a half million Illinoisans voted for the Republican presidential nominee.

Republicans do not suffer from an absence of voters.

They suffer from an inability to build a coalition large enough to join those voters.

That is a profoundly different problem.

And it should change everything about how Illinois Republicans think about their future.

Because the party's problem is not simply Chicago.

It is not simply Pritzker.

It is not simply campaign money.

It is not simply unfavorable media coverage.

It is not simply legislative maps.

It is not simply suburban voters.

It is all of those things wrapped around a much larger failure to build.

The consequences are visible every day in Springfield.

Democrats currently hold 77 seats in the Illinois House.

Republicans hold 40.

Democrats hold 40 seats in the Illinois Senate.

Republicans hold 19.

Democrats occupy the governor's mansion and every statewide constitutional office.

Springfield is not divided government.

It is Democratic government with a Republican opposition that is badly outnumbered.

Republicans are not fighting over who gets to drive the car.

They are trying to figure out how to get back into it.

And that should concern people who have never voted Republican in their lives.

Healthy government needs competition.

Democrats should have to worry about losing.

Republicans should have to prove they deserve to win.

Incumbents should know that arrogance, corruption, incompetence, excessive spending or bad policy can result in unemployment on Election Day.

When one party becomes overwhelmingly dominant, political gravity begins to change.

The majority can grow complacent because it does not fear losing power.

The minority can grow complacent because it stops believing it can gain power.

Illinois risks getting both.

That is why this story matters beyond Republican politics.

A competitive Republican Party would force Democrats to sharpen their arguments, defend their spending, justify their policies and compete for voters they might otherwise take for granted.

A competitive Democratic Party does the same thing to Republicans.

Political competition is not a partisan luxury.

It is one of democracy's quality-control mechanisms.

And right now, Illinois desperately needs more of it.

Which brings us back to money.

Because if Republicans believe their biggest obstacle is simply Democratic financial superiority, there is a $42 million elephant sitting in the room.

Conservatives had money.

Lots of it.

The People Who Play By The Rules experience demonstrates that money without infrastructure can disappear remarkably quickly.

According to Illinois Review, during one 2023 reporting period the PAC spent approximately $142,000 on consultants while reporting only $3,725 in spending supporting three school board candidates.

All three lost.

Meanwhile, Illinois Review reported that Starfish Consulting received more than $1.14 million over the PAC's existence, including recurring payments long after the 2022 gubernatorial election.

Those figures deserve scrutiny not because political consultants should not be paid.

Good political professionals are valuable.

Winning campaigns require expertise.

But political organizations ultimately have to be judged by what remains after the checks clear.

Where is the organization?

Where is the candidate pipeline?

Where is the suburban operation?

Where is the voter registration machine?

Where is the bench of future statewide candidates?

Where are the new Republican countywide officeholders in places the party needs to reclaim?

Where is the permanent infrastructure?

Forty-two million dollars can build a lot.

It can train candidates.

It can recruit precinct workers.

It can identify persuadable voters.

It can build county organizations.

It can create data systems.

It can develop young candidates before they seek statewide office.

It can fund policy research.

It can create Hispanic outreach.

It can create Black voter outreach.

It can build suburban organizations.

It can recruit women.

It can register voters.

It can build communications operations that function 365 days a year instead of appearing six months before Election Day.

Television commercials disappear.

Consultants cash checks.

Infrastructure remains.

At least it is supposed to.

And while Republicans contemplate the wreckage of one $42 million conservative political experiment, Pritzker is operating in an entirely different financial universe.

Illinois Review reported that Pritzker contributed another $65 million to his campaign on August 10.

That brings his reported personal contributions across his gubernatorial campaigns to more than $326 million.

Three hundred twenty-six million dollars.

Pritzker does not have to spend months begging donors to write $1,000 checks.

He can reach for a pen.

Republicans can hate that.

They can ridicule it.

They can call it billionaire politics.

They can point out the absurdity of one man being able to inject tens of millions of dollars into his own campaign whenever he chooses.

But complaining about Pritzker's fortune is not a strategy.

Republicans have known what he is capable of since 2018.

You do not defeat a financial aircraft carrier by repeatedly sailing toward it in a canoe and then expressing outrage that the aircraft carrier is bigger.

Pritzker has the money.

But here is the part Republicans should understand.

Democrats also have the infrastructure.

That combination is devastating.

Which means the Republican answer cannot simply be finding its own billionaire.

Illinois Republicans need something money alone cannot purchase overnight.

They need an organization.

And into this burning house walked Bob Grogan.

Grogan became chairman of the Illinois Republican Party in May, succeeding Kathy Salvi.

A Republican from Downers Grove and former three-term DuPage County auditor, Grogan brought something particularly valuable to the job.

Suburban experience.

That matters enormously.

Because any realistic Republican revival in Illinois eventually travels through the suburbs.

"Illinois Republicans are united and I'm excited to get to work electing Republicans up and down the ballot in November."

Bob Grogan, after being elected Illinois Republican Party chairman.

Grogan deserves fairness.

He did not create this mess.

He did not lose the 2022 governor's race.

He did not build the Republican legislative minorities.

He did not create decades of changing suburban voting patterns.

And he has been chairman for only a few months.

But politics rarely gives new leaders the luxury of waiting until circumstances become convenient.

November is coming whether Grogan is ready or not.

And many Republicans who hoped a new chairman would inject energy, visibility and urgency into the state party are still waiting to see what the Grogan era actually looks like.

That does not mean nothing is happening behind the scenes.

It means Republicans need evidence that something different is being built.

The chairman's assignment is not complicated to describe.

It is extraordinarily difficult to accomplish.

Raise money.

Recruit candidates.

Build county organizations.

Modernize voter data.

Compete in the suburbs.

Support legislative candidates.

Expand the electorate.

Find voters who do not already identify as Republicans.

And win something.

That last part is important.

Political parties are not museums created to preserve memories of elections they once won.

Their purpose is to win the next one.

Illinois Republicans once understood how to do that statewide.

Jim Thompson won.

Jim Edgar won.

George Ryan won.

Bruce Rauner won.

Republicans once competed seriously throughout suburban Chicago.

Illinois did not suddenly amend its constitution to prohibit Republicans from winning elections.

The electorate changed.

The suburbs changed.

The Republican coalition changed.

The Democratic coalition changed.

National politics changed.

Illinois Republicans have not adapted fast enough.

Nostalgia will not fix that.

Neither will pretending every suburban voter who abandoned the Republican Party secretly remains a Republican waiting for someone to say the right magic words.

Those voters have to be earned back.

That means talking about taxes.

But not only taxes.

Crime.

But not only crime.

Schools.

But not only schools.

Government spending.

Jobs.

Housing.

Energy.

Transportation.

Pensions.

Corruption.

Economic opportunity.

The cost of raising a family.

The quality of communities.

And most importantly, what Republicans would actually do differently.

"Democrats are terrible" is not a governing agenda.

Eventually voters ask what happens the morning after Republicans win.

Republicans need an answer.

There are legitimate vulnerabilities for Democrats.

Illinois is not some policy paradise where every resident is thrilled with state government.

The U.S. Census Bureau estimates Illinois had 12,719,141 residents on July 1, 2025, compared with an April 2020 estimates base of 12,821,741.

That represents a decline of about 0.8 percent.

Republicans should talk about population trends.

They should talk about migration.

They should talk about why families and businesses choose one state over another.

But they should get the numbers right.

Claims that Illinois has lost more than 500,000 residents since 2020 are not supported by the Census Bureau's current statewide estimates.

Facts matter.

Especially when your central argument is that voters should trust you to run the government better.

And then there is the ideological battle Republicans desperately want to have.

Progressive and democratic socialist politics have become increasingly visible, particularly in Chicago.

Republicans warn that Illinois is moving toward socialism and, sometimes, communism.

There are serious arguments to be made about the proper size of government, taxation, public spending, private enterprise, regulation, public ownership and the power of government institutions.

Make them.

But make them intelligently.

Democratic socialism, socialism and communism are not interchangeable terms.

Calling every progressive policy "communism" might generate applause at a Republican gathering.

It does not necessarily persuade the independent mother in DuPage County trying to figure out why her property tax bill keeps climbing.

If Republicans believe Illinois is moving dangerously far left, then explain it.

Which policy?

How much does it cost?

Who pays for it?

What are the long-term consequences?

What would Republicans replace it with?

How much would the Republican alternative cost?

How would it improve someone's life?

That is persuasion.

And persuasion is the business Republicans need to rediscover.

Because here is the uncomfortable contradiction.

If Republicans truly believe Illinois is drifting toward an economic and political philosophy they consider dangerous, then repeatedly losing elections while complaining about that drift is not resistance.

It is failure.

You cannot stop policies you oppose if you cannot elect enough people to stop them.

You cannot change budgets from Facebook.

You cannot reform pensions with a podcast.

You cannot reduce taxes with a yard sign.

You cannot alter legislation with an angry email.

Eventually somebody has to win an election.

That is what makes the People Who Play By The Rules story so important.

The lesson is not merely that a PAC spent $42 million and went 0-4 among the candidates it supported.

The lesson is about what political money is supposed to accomplish.

The checks are gone.

The advertisements are gone.

The elections are gone.

So what remains?

That may be the most important question Illinois conservatives can ask.

Because $42 million invested into permanent political infrastructure could leave something behind even after losing an election.

Thousands of trained volunteers.

Hundreds of prospective candidates.

New precinct organizations.

Expanded voter files.

Stronger county parties.

A donor network.

A youth organization.

A suburban strategy.

A communications apparatus.

A bench.

Losing while building can eventually become winning.

Losing without building becomes a habit.

And habits become cultures.

That is the danger confronting the Illinois Republican Party.

The good news, and there is good news, is that the situation is not hopeless.

Nearly 2.45 million Illinoisans voted Republican for president in 2024.

Republicans hold 40 Illinois House seats.

They hold 19 Senate seats.

They control local offices throughout significant portions of Illinois.

There are Republican activists, donors, elected officials and organizations scattered across the state.

The raw material exists.

What is missing is enough connective tissue to turn those pieces into a statewide machine.

That is why the Illinois GOP's future should not be measured exclusively by whether Darren Bailey defeats JB Pritzker in November.

The party needs to think bigger than one election precisely because it has spent too many years thinking too narrowly about the next one.

Build a ten-year organization.

Recruit candidates before you need them.

Make county parties matter.

Contest local offices.

Develop candidates through school boards, municipal government, county boards and the legislature.

Stop treating statewide candidates as political lottery tickets.

Rebuild suburban credibility.

Compete for Black voters instead of assuming they are unreachable.

Compete for Hispanic voters instead of assuming national trends will automatically deliver them.

Compete for young voters.

Compete for union households.

Compete for independents.

Compete everywhere.

Lose some.

Learn.

Return.

Win some.

Build.

That is how political parties come back.

Not through one billionaire.

Not through one consultant.

Not through one candidate.

Not through one chairman.

Through an institution.

That is Grogan's real challenge.

He does not have to perform a miracle by November.

He does have to demonstrate that Illinois Republicans have stopped waiting for one.

Because Pritzker can write another check tomorrow.

Democrats can recruit another candidate tomorrow.

Progressive organizations can organize another neighborhood tomorrow.

The General Assembly can pass another bill tomorrow.

Republicans cannot continue answering all of that with another press release explaining why Illinois voters ought to be furious.

Anger is abundant.

Votes are what count.

Which brings us to the cruel joke that has followed struggling political parties forever.

Could Illinois Republicans win dogcatcher?

Of course Republicans can win local elections. They already do.

But the joke stings because statewide, the scoreboard is merciless.

The Illinois GOP does not need another autopsy.

Everybody knows where the wounds are.

It needs a resurrection.

Not a press-release resurrection.

Not a fundraising-email resurrection.

Not a social-media resurrection.

Not a resurrection announced at a banquet while everyone in the ballroom applauds.

A real one.

Precinct by precinct.

Town by town.

County by county.

Suburb by suburb.

Candidate by candidate.

Voter by voter.

Forty-two million dollars came and went.

The consultants were paid.

The commercials aired.

The elections happened.

The candidates lost.

Now ask the only question that matters.

What did Republicans build?

Because Pritzker has the money.

Democrats have Springfield.

Republicans have millions of voters.

Bob Grogan has the chairmanship.

Darren Bailey has another shot.

And Illinois voters have every right to expect something more substantial than another collection of explanations on the morning after Election Day.

The Illinois Republican Party has spent years standing on the shore, watching Democrats sail away with state government and explaining afterward why the tide was unfair.

Maybe the tide was unfair.

Maybe the boat was expensive.

Maybe the wind was against them.

Maybe Democrats had a bigger ship.

Fine.

At some point, somebody still has to build the damn boat.

And until Illinois Republicans do, the most expensive thing they will continue purchasing will not be consultants, television commercials or political mail.

It will be another four years of irrelevance.

Official Sources and Records

• Illinois State Board of Elections. Official 2022 General Election results. JB Pritzker received 54.91 percent and Darren Bailey received 42.37 percent in the gubernatorial election.

• Illinois State Board of Elections. Official 2024 General Election results. Kamala Harris received 54.37 percent and Donald Trump received 43.47 percent in Illinois. Trump received 2,449,079 votes.

• Illinois State Board of Elections. Official 2026 Primary Election records. Darren Bailey received 304,162 votes, or 53.28 percent, in the Republican gubernatorial primary. Ted Dabrowski received 165,229 votes, or 28.94 percent.

• Illinois State Board of Elections. Campaign disclosure records for People Who Play By The Rules PAC, including the committee's final filing covering the period ending July 17, 2026.

• Illinois State Board of Elections. Campaign disclosure records for Illinois political committees and candidates.

• Illinois General Assembly. Current House membership. Democrats hold 77 seats and Republicans hold 40.

• Illinois General Assembly. Current Senate membership. Democrats hold 40 seats and Republicans hold 19.

• U.S. Census Bureau. Illinois population estimates. The July 1, 2025 estimate was 12,719,141, compared with an April 2020 estimates base of 12,821,741.

• Illinois Republican Party. Party leadership information and public statements concerning Bob Grogan's election as chairman in May 2026.

• Illinois Review. "$42M-Backed PAC Shuts Down With No Statewide Wins After $1.1M Paid to Proft's Consulting Firm." August 18, 2026. Reporting used for figures concerning Richard Uihlein, People Who Play By The Rules, Starfish Consulting, Dan Proft and expenditures associated with candidates supported by the PAC.

• Illinois Review. "Pritzker Dumps Another $65 Million Into Campaign as Self-Funding Tops $326 Million." August 18, 2026. Reporting used for figures concerning Pritzker's August 2026 campaign contribution and cumulative personal campaign funding.