PINOCCHIO PRITZKER: THE NOSE IS GROWING. THE BUYING POWER ISN’T.

October 30, 2026•7 min read

PINOCCHIO PRITZKER TAKES A VICTORY LAP. THE NUMBERS REFUSE TO APPLAUD.

The governor is selling his minimum wage increase as an economic triumph. The report challenging his claims tells a different story: weak employment, stalled purchasing power and warnings about lost opportunities that deserve more attention than another campaign commercial.

By Staff Writer | FactsFirstus.com
October 30, 2026

J.B. Pritzker has found something doing considerably better than Illinois’ employment numbers: his description of them.

In his campaign’s version of Illinois, the minimum wage increase was the “right thing,” workers are moving ahead and employment is making history.

Cue the applause. Start the victory lap. Preferably before anyone checks the numbers.

An October 30 analysis by Illinois Policy researcher Adam Gorcyca challenges that polished presentation with findings that belong in the commercial, even if they would spoil the ending. Employment below an earlier benchmark. Unemployment averaging among the highest in the nation. Average hourly purchasing power that has essentially gone nowhere.

This is the record Pritzker wants packaged as a triumph before voters decide whether to give him another four years.

If the campaign were casting Pinocchio, the governor would make a convincing lead.

The boast runs into the record.

The advertisement makes an unmistakable claim.

“More people are working in Illinois than ever before.”
— Pritzker campaign advertisement.

“Ever before” is ambitious wording when an earlier year is doing better.

According to Gorcyca’s report, Illinois employment levels have averaged below their 2018 level so far in 2026 and have declined over the past two years.

On the employment measure examined in that analysis, the campaign’s claim is wrong.

That discrepancy strikes at the heart of the advertisement. Pritzker is using supposed record employment to help sell his economic leadership. The report identifies a record that does not match the sales pitch.

Payroll jobs and employed residents are different statistical measures. The campaign should identify the precise series and dates supporting its declaration. A record in one cannot simply be assumed to prove a record in the other.

The governor chose the boast. Producing the evidence is his responsibility.

For the worker sending out applications and waiting for a callback, prosperity should be easier to locate than the statistical explanation behind a campaign advertisement.

A bigger number on the paycheck. Little ground gained.

Pritzker also celebrates rising pay.

Working people understand that a paycheck has to survive contact with the cost of living before anyone can declare victory.

Illinois Policy reports that inflation-adjusted hourly wages in Illinois declined an average of 0.02 percent annually from 2018 through 2025. Illinois was one of only seven states to register a decline during that period.

The annual decrease is slight. Years without meaningful improvement in average hourly purchasing power are a substantial failure to deliver progress.

By this measure, an average hour of work bought essentially no more at the end of the period than at the beginning.

These are statewide averages covering workers across the wage scale. They do not measure the individual gains of every minimum wage employee. They do, however, undermine the suggestion that larger dollar amounts on paychecks establish broad economic success.

A worker can earn more dollars and still struggle to get ahead.

Pritzker has also helped increase an expense many employees must pay before they earn the first dollar of a shift. In 2019, he signed the law doubling Illinois’ state gasoline tax from 19 cents to 38 cents a gallon and establishing automatic inflation adjustments.

The pump provides a particularly Illinois illustration of how a raise gets eaten away.

The governor takes credit for requiring employers to put more into the paycheck. Workers then buy fuel carrying the higher taxes he signed into law so they can drive back to work.

Apparently, both transactions qualify as helping.

The gasoline tax does not explain the entire purchasing-power picture. It does expose how conveniently a campaign can celebrate money coming in while overlooking policies that help send it back out.

The warnings belonged in the story all along.

Critics of higher wage mandates warned that the consequences would extend beyond the hourly rate.

Employers facing higher labor costs could reduce hiring, cut hours, raise prices or change how they operate. Younger applicants and people with limited experience could find the first rung of the employment ladder harder to reach.

Those warnings were not difficult to understand. A law can establish what an employer must pay for an hour. It cannot require that employer to offer the hour.

For the employee whose schedule shrinks, the hourly rate tells an incomplete story. For the applicant who never gets hired, the promised raise never arrives.

Research cited in Gorcyca’s report identifies employment risks from higher minimum wages, particularly for younger and less experienced workers. The size of those effects varies across studies and labor markets, but the tradeoffs cannot be wished away by declaring the policy compassionate.

Pritzker pushed ahead. Now his campaign wants the benefits remembered and the risks pushed out of frame.

The worker belongs in the whole picture: the employee receiving higher pay, the employee losing hours and the applicant still waiting for an opening.

Third-highest unemployment is a peculiar victory platform.

Illinois Policy calculates that Illinois’ unemployment rate averaged 5.4 percent from January 2019 through July 2026, the third-highest state average during that period.

That span includes the pandemic. It also provides a comparison with other states that experienced the same national emergency.

For someone trying to find work, the consequences are personal. Another unanswered application. Another week stretching the account. Another opportunity that seems easier to find somewhere else.

The report does not isolate how much Illinois’ minimum wage increase contributed to statewide unemployment. These figures cannot establish that the mandate caused the state’s entire employment problem.

But they certainly do not establish the uncomplicated success Pritzker is advertising.

Employment below an earlier benchmark, comparatively high unemployment and stagnant average purchasing power make a poor foundation for a victory lap.

The warnings about hiring and opportunity deserved serious attention when the policy was debated. They deserve serious scrutiny now that the governor is campaigning on the results.

Voters are being asked to renew the contract.

Pritzker wants another four years on the strength of a story he is telling about the years already behind him.

Workers have supplied the labor. They have paid the bills, absorbed higher prices and bought the fuel to keep showing up. They deserve an honest account of the results.

A governor claiming record employment should substantiate it. A governor celebrating higher wages should account for what those wages buy. A governor asking for another term should expect his advertisements to be measured against his performance.

The report challenges the employment boast on the measure it examines. Its purchasing-power findings show years of essentially standing still. Its unemployment comparison supplies little reason for celebration.

Yet the commercial keeps rolling.

Before voters renew Pritzker’s contract, they should remember that a campaign can put a flattering face on almost anything. It cannot put an extra shift on the schedule, a job offer in an inbox or money back into an empty account merely by announcing success.

Pinocchio had a nose that gave him away. Pritzker has a record. Voters should read it before rewarding it.

Official sources